FAQ
Tier records program status — Elite through Rebuilding, based on the preseason projection. Grade records the season narrative — A through F on Δ (delta), realized minus projection. A team can be Elite tier and receive a D. LSU 2025 is that case: Elite projection (78.7, #11), D grade (Δ −14.0).
Alabama's 2026 preseason projection is 79.2 — right at the Contender/Elite line. Elite bands off at 80.0. Alabama is #12 on the tier board. Tier is fixed for the season at whatever the August projection bought; in-season, a strong 2026 will show up as a positive Δ and a better grade, not as a tier promotion.
The Grade board sorts by Δ (realized − projection). Indiana projected 67.9 for 2025 and finished at 96.3 — a Δ of +28.4, one of the largest overshoots in 2025 (North Texas led the field at +31.0). Alabama projected 86.4, finished at 71.1 — Δ = −15.3, grade D. They came in high and undershot. Overshoot is what the Grade board measures — not raw quality.
This is exactly what the Ceiling grade is for. Ohio State 2025 projected 87.3, realized 93.0, Δ = +5.7 — raw Δ grade C. But their headroom was only 12.7 points; the +5.7 used 45% of it, which earns a Ceiling grade of B. That's the two-lens view: raw Δ doesn't reward ceiling teams, Ceiling grade does.
Preseason SP+ (Bill Connelly) as the base, plus four residual layers: returning production (ESPN), 2-year recruiting composite (247/On3), a symmetric ±1 tiered coach signal, and a standardized portal-net-flow residual. Full formula and weights on the Methodology page.
The 2025 projection is Bill Connelly's August 13, 2025 preseason SP+ rating — the last preseason release before Week 1 — mapped to the 0–100 scale. The realized score is each team's final 2025 SP+ rating on the same scale. Δ = realized − projection. No smoothing, no regression, no retrofit.
The initial 2026 tier board publishes in August. Once the season starts, the model refreshes Sunday mornings — realized SP+ updates, and every Δ and grade recomputes against the new week's data. Tier is preseason-fixed and does not move in-season.
CollegeFootballData for SP+, recruiting, returning production, coaches. Preseason 2026 SP+ cross-checked with Bill Connelly's public preseason release.
No — 138 FBS programs only (136 with a 2025 grade; North Dakota State and Sacramento State join FBS in 2026 and don't have a 2025 grade).
No. There are no spreads, totals, or moneylines here. Don't use these numbers to bet on games. They measure trajectory vs. projection — not game outcomes.
No. Every board and every team report card is free and open. No sign-in, no paywall, no email required.