Tier
Elite
Projection
83.9
SP+ preseason
+20.2
National tier rank
#9
Projected #9 of 138 FBS programs for 2026. Elite tier — projection ≥ 80.
Brian Kelly departed after the 2025 season; Lane Kiffin was hired from Ole Miss. The coach signal applies the elite-hire adjustment (−1.0 pt) to the 2026 projection. No further coach-transition penalty is applied.
See the full Elite tier →2025 season · final grade
Projection
78.7
Realized
64.7
Δ
−14.0
Grade
D
Ceiling SECONDARY
D
Ceiling grade: D · secondary lens · 18% of downside headroom used. LSU projected 78.7. Δ = −14.0. 14.0 / 78.7 = 0.178, inside the Ceiling D band (−0.40 < ceiling_pct < −0.15). Ceiling scales Δ against the room a team had to move from its projection, in whichever direction the season went.
The yellow tick is LSU's August 13, 2025 preseason SP+ rating (+20.1) — the last preseason release before Week 1, from Bill Connelly / ESPN — mapped by score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35) to 78.7. The dark bar is the final 2025 SP+ (Connelly, post-championship): 64.7. Δ = −14.0 = grade D.
LSU entered 2025 as SP+ #11 (+20.1), projected Elite tier. They finished #32 (+10.3), a full tier below the projection.
A D grade records Δ = −14.0, inside the D band (−18 < Δ < −6). Short of the number, and not narrowly.
Brian Kelly was fired at season's end; Lane Kiffin was hired from Ole Miss. LSU carries an Elite 2026 tier and a 2025 grade of D. Both are recorded on the site.
A D means LSU finished between 6 and 18 points below the projection (Δ −14.0). Short of the number, and not narrowly.
The grade always records the same relationship: realized minus projection, banded A through F. It is not a strength ranking.
See it in action
All 138 FBS programs get the 2026 preseason tier card (136 also have a 2025 season grade — North Dakota State and Sacramento State are new to FBS for 2026) — on the same 0–100 scale, computed from the same public data.