2026 season · preseason baseline · 2025 season graded
A preseason projection is set for all 138 FBS programs (136 with a 2025 grade) from SP+, returning production, recruiting, and a tiered coach signal. What actually happened is graded, A through F, on the residual — Δ (delta), realized minus projection. Two boards, two questions. The tier board records program status. The grade board records the season narrative.
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One worked example, LSU, showing every metric on the site. Tier is program status. Grade is season narrative. Both use the same 0–100 scale.
1 · Projection
Preseason SP+ mapped to 0–100
78.7
LSU was SP+ +20.1 on Aug 13, 2025 — the #11 team in the country entering the season.
2 · Realized
Final 2025 SP+, same scale
64.7
They finished at SP+ +10.3, #32 nationally — well below the projection.
3 · Δ (delta)
Realized − Projection
−14.0
That's a 14.0-point miss vs. their August self. Δ is the number the Grade board sorts on.
4 · Grade
Δ banded A through F
D
D band: −18 < Δ < −6 (both edges exclusive — −18 grades F, −6 grades C). And separately: 2026 projection 84.2 still puts LSU #10, Elite tier.
Both are true. Elite program, D season. See the full breakdown on the LSU sample card or read the methodology.
2026 preseason · Program Trajectory Rating
These are the 11 programs projected 80.0 or higher on the 0–100 scale (SP+ ≥ +21.0) for 2026. Blue-bloods and this year's ascendant Big Ten. Alabama sits at #12 (78.3) — Contender tier by less than a point.
2025 season · final realized SP+
Sorted by realized SP+ on the 0–100 scale. The closest surface here to a traditional top-25.
| # | Team | Real | Proj | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana Big Ten |
96.3 | 67.9 | A |
| 2 | Ohio State Big Ten |
93.0 | 87.3 | C |
| 3 | Texas Tech Big 12 |
89.4 | 66.6 | A |
| 4 | Oregon Big Ten |
87.0 | 81.4 | C |
| 5 | Notre Dame FBS Independents |
84.9 | 81.4 | C |
2025 · largest positive Δ
Ranked by Δ (realized − projection). North Texas's +31.0 led the country in 2025.
| # | Team | Proj | Real | Δ | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Texas American Athletic |
38.7 | 69.7 | +31.0 | A |
| 2 | Indiana Big Ten |
67.9 | 96.3 | +28.4 | A |
| 3 | New Mexico Mountain West |
23.4 | 51.3 | +27.9 | A |
| 4 | San Diego State Mountain West |
34.4 | 59.6 | +25.1 | A |
| 5 | Old Dominion Sun Belt |
34.9 | 58.4 | +23.6 | A |
Every program has a card
Every card shows the 2026 preseason tier + projection, plus the full 2025 season grade.
Tier is where a program sits right now. A blend of preseason SP+, returning production, 2-year recruiting composite, and a tiered coach signal.
Grade is how last season went against its projection. The residual Δ = realized − projection, banded A through F.
One is program status. The other is season narrative. Both use the same 0–100 scale, and Δ is the subtraction.
Think of it as a stock and a flow: tier is the standing balance the program brings into the season, grade is what the season added or subtracted from it. A Contender A can outfinish an Elite C in a single year (Indiana 2025 did). The Elite C is still the program you'd take for the next five.
Read the methodology →