2026 · Program Trajectory Rating
Live ratings as of 2026-10-26 · refresh weekly in season · August projections stay frozen as the graded benchmark
No programs match these filters.
National rank on current rating versus the August projected rank. 54 of 138 programs are currently rating in a different band than the one their projection bought — 27 higher, 27 lower.
Climbing
Falling
This is the current-form lens: every program re-ranked and re-banded on today's in-season SP+, not on August's projection. The big number is the team's rating right now; the small ▲▼ is how many places it has moved against its August projected rank, and a ↑↓ badge marks programs currently rating outside the band their projection bought. The bands themselves never move — Elite is still ≥ 80.0 — only which rating gets banded. The letter is the live grade (current SP+ measured against the frozen August projection); early in the season SP+ still leans on its preseason priors, so most letters sit near C and rank movement is the more informative signal. The August board remains the accountability record — the projection each team is graded against is fixed for the season and never revised by results. Switch to it above.
6 programs
Currently rating ≥ 80.0 — SP+ ≥ +21.0 right now.
16 programs
Currently 68.0 to < 80.0 — SP+ +12.6 to +21.0 right now.
37 programs
Currently 55.0 to < 68.0 — SP+ +3.5 to +12.6 right now.
37 programs
Currently 42.0 to < 55.0 — SP+ −5.6 to +3.5 right now.
42 programs
Currently below 42.0 — SP+ < −5.6 right now.
Tiers are absolute bands, not curves. These 8 programs sit within a point of a boundary — one 5-point stumble or ceiling week could move them.
Every FBS program placed on a 0–100 projection scale for 2026, derived from preseason SP+, returning production, a 2-year recruiting composite, a small portal residual (standardized net-flow), and a symmetric ±1 tiered coach signal. The letter on each card is the live 2026 grade — current in-season SP+ measured against the frozen August projection, banded on the same A–F scale as the 2025 retrospective; it recomputes weekly while the projection and tier stay frozen. Early in the season SP+ still leans on its preseason priors, so most live grades sit near C. Tiers are absolute bands, not curves — a team moves between tiers on absolute changes in projection, not relative shifts against peers. Tiebreaker: when two teams share a projection to one decimal, the higher preseason SP+ wins. Tier ranks are global — filtering by conference doesn't renumber them, so each program's national position stays visible, not just its within-league order.
11 programs
Projected ≥ 80.0 on the 0–100 scale — SP+ ≥ +21.0. Realistic playoff contenders.
15 programs
68.0 ≤ score < 80.0 — SP+ +12.6 to +21.0. Would beat most schedules; playoff-adjacent.
34 programs
55.0 ≤ score < 68.0 — SP+ +3.5 to +12.6. Bowl-eligible baseline; upper-half of FBS.
27 programs
42.0 ≤ score < 55.0 — SP+ −5.6 to +3.5. Below-average FBS; rebuilding programs.
51 programs
Below 42.0 — SP+ < −5.6. Multi-year climbs; often FCS-transitioning or in coaching transition.