2026 preseason · Program Trajectory Rating
Projections frozen at the Aug 2026 preseason baseline · live grades as of 2026-09-08 refresh weekly in-season; tier is preseason-fixed
Tiers are absolute bands, not curves. These 8 programs sit within a point of a boundary — one 5-point stumble or ceiling week could move them.
Every FBS program placed on a 0–100 projection scale for 2026, derived from preseason SP+, returning production, a 2-year recruiting composite, a small portal residual (standardized net-flow), and a symmetric ±1 tiered coach signal. The letter on each card is the live 2026 grade — current in-season SP+ measured against the frozen August projection, banded on the same A–F scale as the 2025 retrospective; it recomputes weekly while the projection and tier stay frozen. Early in the season SP+ still leans on its preseason priors, so most live grades sit near C. Tiers are absolute bands, not curves — a team moves between tiers on absolute changes in projection, not relative shifts against peers. Tiebreaker: when two teams share a projection to one decimal, the higher preseason SP+ wins. Tier ranks are global — filtering by conference doesn't renumber them, so each program's national position stays visible, not just its within-league order.
No programs match these filters.
11 programs
Projected ≥ 80.0 on the 0–100 scale — SP+ ≥ +21.0. Realistic playoff contenders.
15 programs
68.0 ≤ score < 80.0 — SP+ +12.6 to +21.0. Would beat most schedules; playoff-adjacent.
34 programs
55.0 ≤ score < 68.0 — SP+ +3.5 to +12.6. Bowl-eligible baseline; upper-half of FBS.
27 programs
42.0 ≤ score < 55.0 — SP+ −5.6 to +3.5. Below-average FBS; rebuilding programs.
51 programs
Below 42.0 — SP+ < −5.6. Multi-year climbs; often FCS-transitioning or in coaching transition.