Building #69

Syracuse

ACC · 2026 preseason baseline

Projection

49.5

SP+ preseason

−1.9

Returning prod.

58%

Recruiting

67%

2026 season · live grade · as of 2026-09-08

The 2026 season, so far.

C CeilingC

On the projection, so far.

Current SP+ +2.7 · SP+ rank #60 · updates weekly in season

Projection (frozen)

49.5

Playing like

53.9

Δ

+4.4

Δ grade

C

The live grade measures current in-season SP+ (Bill Connelly, via CFBD) against Syracuse's frozen August projection of 49.5 — the same number that set the 2026 tier. Same mapping (score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35)) and the same A–F Δ bands as the 2025 grade below. It recomputes each week as SP+ updates; the projection and tier do not. Early in the season, in-season SP+ still leans heavily on its preseason priors, so most live grades start near C and drift as results accumulate.

2026 portal cycle

Net negative on talent-weighted flow.

−2.05z

talent-weighted z-score

applied: −0.41 pts

Top gains

  • 3★ QBMalachi Nelson from UTEP
  • 3★ QBDanny Lauter from Georgetown
  • 3★ QBAmari Odom from Kennesaw State

Top losses

  • 4★ QBRickie Collins to Kennesaw State
  • 4★ WRDarrell Gill Jr. to Ole Miss
  • 3★ QBLuke Carney to Houston

Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2026 portal cycle. See the full portal leaderboard →

2025 season · final grade

The 2025 season, graded.

F FloorF

Short of the projection.

Realized SP+ −13.1 · SP+ rank #115

Projection

54.7

Realized

31.3

Δ

−23.4

Δ grade

F

Floor SECONDARY

F

Projection vs realized

Realized 31.3 Projection 54.7

The yellow tick is Syracuse's August 13, 2025 preseason SP+ rating (+3.3) — the last preseason release before Week 1, from Bill Connelly / ESPN. The dark bar is the final 2025 SP+ (Connelly, post-championship). Both mapped to the 0–100 scale by score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35), clamped [1, 99]. The gap between them is Δ: −23.4. Δ banded A through F gives the letter grade.

What the grade means

An F means Syracuse finished 18 points or more below the projection (Δ −23.4). The projection has been informed.

Floor grade: F · secondary lens · 43% of downside headroom used. Δ divided by the room Syracuse had to fall from projection 54.7 toward 0. A team at projection 54.7 had 54.7 points of downside room; a proj-90 team would have had 90.

The letter grade always records the same relationship: realized minus projection, banded A through F. A team can sit in the Elite tier and still receive a D. LSU in 2025 is that case.

Read the methodology →

Offense (2025)

18.8

SP+ offensive rating

Defense (2025)

33.0

SP+ defensive rating (lower = better)

Nat'l SP+ rank

#115

Final 2025 SP+ ranking

2025 portal cycle (context)

Net negative on talent-weighted flow.

−1.65z

talent-weighted z-score

Top gains

  • 4★ IOLTJ Ferguson from Florida State
  • 3★ QBSteve Angeli from Notre Dame
  • 3★ QBRickie Collins from LSU

Top losses

  • 4★ WRTrebor Pena to Penn State
  • 4★ DLMaraad Watson to Texas
  • 4★ IOLJ'Onre Reed to USC

Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2025 portal cycle (context).

Returning production (2025): 14% of prior-year PPA back on the field (Bill Connelly's percentPPA metric via CFBD). This is a narrative reference — the 2025 grade itself is Δ vs preseason SP+ only.