Contender #24

South Carolina

SEC · 2026 preseason baseline

Projection

71.8

SP+ preseason

+12.6

Returning prod.

58%

Recruiting

78%

2026 season · live grade · as of 2026-09-08

The 2026 season, so far.

C CeilingC

On the projection, so far.

Current SP+ +16.7 · SP+ rank #19 · updates weekly in season

Projection (frozen)

71.8

Playing like

73.9

Δ

+2.1

Δ grade

C

The live grade measures current in-season SP+ (Bill Connelly, via CFBD) against South Carolina's frozen August projection of 71.8 — the same number that set the 2026 tier. Same mapping (score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35)) and the same A–F Δ bands as the 2025 grade below. It recomputes each week as SP+ updates; the projection and tier do not. Early in the season, in-season SP+ still leans heavily on its preseason priors, so most live grades start near C and drift as results accumulate.

2026 portal cycle

Net positive on talent-weighted flow.

+1.54z

talent-weighted z-score

applied: +0.31 pts

Top gains

  • 4★ OTJacarrius Peak from NC State
  • 4★ DLTomiwa Durojaiye from Illinois
  • 3★ QBLucian Anderson III from Bowling Green

Top losses

  • 4★ WRVandrevius Jacobs to Miami
  • 3★ QBAir Noland to Memphis
  • 3★ EDGEJaylen Brown to LSU

Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2026 portal cycle. See the full portal leaderboard →

2025 season · final grade

The 2025 season, graded.

D FloorD

Short of the projection.

Realized SP+ +5.9 · SP+ rank #49

Projection

72.9

Realized

58.4

Δ

−14.4

Δ grade

D

Floor SECONDARY

D

Projection vs realized

Realized 58.4 Projection 72.9

The yellow tick is South Carolina's August 13, 2025 preseason SP+ rating (+16.0) — the last preseason release before Week 1, from Bill Connelly / ESPN. The dark bar is the final 2025 SP+ (Connelly, post-championship). Both mapped to the 0–100 scale by score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35), clamped [1, 99]. The gap between them is Δ: −14.4. Δ banded A through F gives the letter grade.

What the grade means

A D means South Carolina finished between 6 and 18 points below the projection (Δ −14.4). Short of the number, and not narrowly.

Floor grade: D · secondary lens · 20% of downside headroom used. Δ divided by the room South Carolina had to fall from projection 72.9 toward 0. A team at projection 72.9 had 72.9 points of downside room; a proj-90 team would have had 90.

The letter grade always records the same relationship: realized minus projection, banded A through F. A team can sit in the Elite tier and still receive a D. LSU in 2025 is that case.

Read the methodology →

Offense (2025)

24.6

SP+ offensive rating

Defense (2025)

20.2

SP+ defensive rating (lower = better)

Nat'l SP+ rank

#49

Final 2025 SP+ ranking

2025 portal cycle (context)

Inside a standard deviation of zero.

+0.11z

talent-weighted z-score

Top gains

  • 4★ QBAir Noland from South Carolina
  • 4★ EDGEJaylen Brown from Missouri
  • 4★ RBRahsul Faison from Utah State

Top losses

  • 4★ QBAir Noland to South Carolina
  • 4★ LBMohamed Kaba
  • 3★ QBDante Reno to Yale

Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2025 portal cycle (context).

Returning production (2025): 63% of prior-year PPA back on the field (Bill Connelly's percentPPA metric via CFBD). This is a narrative reference — the 2025 grade itself is Δ vs preseason SP+ only.