Contender #23

Iowa

Big Ten · 2026 preseason baseline

Projection

71.2

SP+ preseason

+13.6

Returning prod.

44%

Recruiting

68%

Coach signal

1

2026 portal cycle

Inside a standard deviation of zero.

+0.91z

talent-weighted z-score

applied: +0.18 pts

Top gains

  • 3★ EDGELance Ingold from Northern Illinois
  • 3★ EDGEKahmari Brown from Elon
  • 3★ WRTony Diaz from Texas-Rio Grande Valley

Top losses

  • 4★ EDGEBrian Allen to Vanderbilt
  • 3★ QBJackson Stratton
  • 3★ CBCJ Bell Jr. to UConn

Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2026 portal cycle. See the full portal leaderboard →

2025 season · final grade

The 2025 season, graded.

B CeilingB

Ahead of the projection.

Realized SP+ +19.7 · SP+ rank #12

Projection

67.3

Realized

78.1

Δ

+10.9

Δ grade

B

Ceiling SECONDARY

B

Projection vs realized

Realized 78.1 Projection 67.3

The yellow tick is Iowa's August 13, 2025 preseason SP+ rating (+12.1) — the last preseason release before Week 1, from Bill Connelly / ESPN. The dark bar is the final 2025 SP+ (Connelly, post-championship). Both mapped to the 0–100 scale by score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35), clamped [1, 99]. The gap between them is Δ: +10.9. Δ banded A through F gives the letter grade.

What the grade means

A B means Iowa finished between 8 and 20 points above the projection (Δ +10.9). Ahead of the projection, and on purpose.

Ceiling grade: B · secondary lens · 33% of upside headroom used. Δ divided by the room Iowa had to move (upside if Δ is positive, downside if negative). Ceiling normalizes for projection height: a projection-90 team has 10 points of upside room, a projection-50 team has 50.

The letter grade always records the same relationship: realized minus projection, banded A through F. A team can sit in the Elite tier and still receive a D. LSU in 2025 is that case.

Read the methodology →

Offense (2025)

32.1

SP+ offensive rating

Defense (2025)

14.2

SP+ defensive rating (lower = better)

Nat'l SP+ rank

#12

Final 2025 SP+ ranking

2025 portal cycle (context)

Net negative on talent-weighted flow.

−1.51z

talent-weighted z-score

Top gains

  • 4★ DLBryce Hawthorne from South Dakota State
  • 3★ QBJeremy Hecklinski from Wake Forest
  • 3★ QBHank Brown from Auburn

Top losses

  • 4★ QBCade McNamara to East Tennessee State
  • 3★ QBBrendan Sullivan to Tulane
  • 3★ QBJames Resar to Independence C.C.

Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2025 portal cycle (context).

Returning production (2025): 49% of prior-year PPA back on the field (Bill Connelly's percentPPA metric via CFBD). This is a narrative reference — the 2025 grade itself is Δ vs preseason SP+ only.