Projection
46.1
SP+ preseason
−2.1
Returning prod.
45%
Recruiting
48%
2026 season · live grade · as of 2026-09-08
Projection (frozen)
46.1
Playing like
38.9
Δ
−7.2
Δ grade
D
The live grade measures current in-season SP+ (Bill Connelly, via CFBD) against Texas State's frozen August projection of 46.1 — the same number that set the 2026 tier. Same mapping (score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35)) and the same A–F Δ bands as the 2025 grade below. It recomputes each week as SP+ updates; the projection and tier do not. Early in the season, in-season SP+ still leans heavily on its preseason priors, so most live grades start near C and drift as results accumulate.
2026 portal cycle
−0.05z
talent-weighted z-score
applied: −0.01 pts
Top gains
Top losses
Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2026 portal cycle. See the full portal leaderboard →
2025 season · final grade
Projection
40.7
Realized
53.3
Δ
+12.6
Δ grade
B
Ceiling SECONDARY
B
The yellow tick is Texas State's August 13, 2025 preseason SP+ rating (−6.5) — the last preseason release before Week 1, from Bill Connelly / ESPN. The dark bar is the final 2025 SP+ (Connelly, post-championship). Both mapped to the 0–100 scale by score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35), clamped [1, 99]. The gap between them is Δ: +12.6. Δ banded A through F gives the letter grade.
A B means Texas State finished between 8 and 20 points above the projection (Δ +12.6). Ahead of the projection, and on purpose.
Ceiling grade: B · secondary lens · 21% of upside headroom used. Δ divided by the room Texas State had to rise from projection 40.7 toward 100. A projection-90 team has 10 points of upside room, a projection-50 team has 50.
The letter grade always records the same relationship: realized minus projection, banded A through F. A team can sit in the Elite tier and still receive a D. LSU in 2025 is that case.
Read the methodology →Offense (2025)
36.6
SP+ offensive rating
Defense (2025)
34.6
SP+ defensive rating (lower = better)
Nat'l SP+ rank
#65
Final 2025 SP+ ranking
2025 portal cycle (context)
+0.92z
talent-weighted z-score
Top gains
Top losses
Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2025 portal cycle (context).
Returning production (2025): 93% of prior-year PPA back on the field (Bill Connelly's percentPPA metric via CFBD). This is a narrative reference — the 2025 grade itself is Δ vs preseason SP+ only.