Rebuilding #131

Sacramento State

Mid-American · 2026 preseason baseline

Projection

14.2

SP+ preseason

−23.4

Returning prod.

45%

Recruiting

26%

2026 season · live grade · as of 2026-09-08

The 2026 season, so far.

B CeilingC

Tracking ahead of the projection.

Current SP+ −19.1 · SP+ rank #125 · updates weekly in season

Projection (frozen)

14.2

Playing like

22.7

Δ

+8.5

Δ grade

B

The live grade measures current in-season SP+ (Bill Connelly, via CFBD) against Sacramento State's frozen August projection of 14.2 — the same number that set the 2026 tier. Same mapping (score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35)) and the same A–F Δ bands as the 2025 grade below. It recomputes each week as SP+ updates; the projection and tier do not. Early in the season, in-season SP+ still leans heavily on its preseason priors, so most live grades start near C and drift as results accumulate.

2026 portal cycle

Net positive on talent-weighted flow.

+1.21z

talent-weighted z-score

applied: +0.24 pts

Top gains

  • 3★ QBJaylen Patterson from New Mexico State
  • 3★ QBCarson Conklin from Fresno State
  • 3★ EDGEIsiah Chala Jr. from Fresno State

Top losses

  • 3★ QBCardell Williams to Maryland
  • 3★ QBJaden Rashada to Mississippi State
  • 3★ EDGEMicah Mosley to Fresno State

Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2026 portal cycle. See the full portal leaderboard →