Solid #32

Kansas State

Big 12 · 2026 preseason baseline

Projection

66.3

SP+ preseason

+9.2

Returning prod.

58%

Recruiting

65%

Coach signal

1

2026 season · live grade · as of 2026-09-08

The 2026 season, so far.

C CeilingC

On the projection, so far.

Current SP+ +12.7 · SP+ rank #23 · updates weekly in season

Projection (frozen)

66.3

Playing like

68.1

Δ

+1.8

Δ grade

C

The live grade measures current in-season SP+ (Bill Connelly, via CFBD) against Kansas State's frozen August projection of 66.3 — the same number that set the 2026 tier. Same mapping (score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35)) and the same A–F Δ bands as the 2025 grade below. It recomputes each week as SP+ updates; the projection and tier do not. Early in the season, in-season SP+ still leans heavily on its preseason priors, so most live grades start near C and drift as results accumulate.

2026 portal cycle

Net negative on talent-weighted flow.

−1.53z

talent-weighted z-score

applied: −0.31 pts

Top gains

  • 4★ EDGEWendell Gregory from Oklahoma State
  • 3★ EDGEElijah Hill from Kennesaw State
  • 3★ EDGEJayden Bryant from Coastal Carolina

Top losses

  • 4★ EDGETobi Osunsanmi to Indiana
  • 4★ EDGEJayshawn Ross
  • 4★ WRJayce Brown to LSU

Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2026 portal cycle. See the full portal leaderboard →

2025 season · final grade

The 2025 season, graded.

D FloorD

Short of the projection.

Realized SP+ +7.0 · SP+ rank #42

Projection

71.9

Realized

60.0

Δ

−11.9

Δ grade

D

Floor SECONDARY

D

Projection vs realized

Realized 60.0 Projection 71.9

The yellow tick is Kansas State's August 13, 2025 preseason SP+ rating (+15.3) — the last preseason release before Week 1, from Bill Connelly / ESPN. The dark bar is the final 2025 SP+ (Connelly, post-championship). Both mapped to the 0–100 scale by score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35), clamped [1, 99]. The gap between them is Δ: −11.9. Δ banded A through F gives the letter grade.

What the grade means

A D means Kansas State finished between 6 and 18 points below the projection (Δ −11.9). Short of the number, and not narrowly.

Floor grade: D · secondary lens · 17% of downside headroom used. Δ divided by the room Kansas State had to fall from projection 71.9 toward 0. A team at projection 71.9 had 71.9 points of downside room; a proj-90 team would have had 90.

The letter grade always records the same relationship: realized minus projection, banded A through F. A team can sit in the Elite tier and still receive a D. LSU in 2025 is that case.

Read the methodology →

Offense (2025)

31.3

SP+ offensive rating

Defense (2025)

25.0

SP+ defensive rating (lower = better)

Nat'l SP+ rank

#42

Final 2025 SP+ ranking

2025 portal cycle (context)

Net negative on talent-weighted flow.

−1.25z

talent-weighted z-score

Top gains

  • 3★ EDGEJayshawn Ross from Alabama
  • 3★ RBGabe Ervin Jr. from Nebraska
  • 3★ WRJerand Bradley from Boston College

Top losses

  • 4★ CBNoah King to Colorado
  • 3★ QBTa'Quan Roberson to Buffalo
  • 3★ EDGEDonovan Rieman

Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2025 portal cycle (context).

Returning production (2025): 69% of prior-year PPA back on the field (Bill Connelly's percentPPA metric via CFBD). This is a narrative reference — the 2025 grade itself is Δ vs preseason SP+ only.