Projection
46.1
SP+ preseason
−2.3
Returning prod.
45%
Recruiting
49%
2026 portal cycle
+0.81z
talent-weighted z-score
applied: +0.16 pts
Top gains
Top losses
Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2026 portal cycle. See the full portal leaderboard →
2025 season · final grade
Projection
40.7
Realized
52.6
Δ
+11.9
Δ grade
B
Ceiling SECONDARY
C
The yellow tick is Fresno State's August 13, 2025 preseason SP+ rating (−6.5) — the last preseason release before Week 1, from Bill Connelly / ESPN. The dark bar is the final 2025 SP+ (Connelly, post-championship). Both mapped to the 0–100 scale by score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35), clamped [1, 99]. The gap between them is Δ: +11.9. Δ banded A through F gives the letter grade.
A B means Fresno State finished between 8 and 20 points above the projection (Δ +11.9). Ahead of the projection, and on purpose.
Ceiling grade: C · secondary lens · 20% of upside headroom used. Δ divided by the room Fresno State had to move (upside if Δ is positive, downside if negative). Ceiling normalizes for projection height: a projection-90 team has 10 points of upside room, a projection-50 team has 50.
The letter grade always records the same relationship: realized minus projection, banded A through F. A team can sit in the Elite tier and still receive a D. LSU in 2025 is that case.
Read the methodology →Offense (2025)
23.0
SP+ offensive rating
Defense (2025)
21.1
SP+ defensive rating (lower = better)
Nat'l SP+ rank
#66
Final 2025 SP+ ranking
2025 portal cycle (context)
−0.40z
talent-weighted z-score
Top gains
Top losses
Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2025 portal cycle (context).
Returning production (2025): 17% of prior-year PPA back on the field (Bill Connelly's percentPPA metric via CFBD). This is a narrative reference — the 2025 grade itself is Δ vs preseason SP+ only.