Projection
66.3
SP+ preseason
+9.4
Returning prod.
58%
Recruiting
71%
2026 season · live grade · as of 2026-09-08
Projection (frozen)
66.3
Playing like
55.6
Δ
−10.7
Δ grade
D
The live grade measures current in-season SP+ (Bill Connelly, via CFBD) against TCU's frozen August projection of 66.3 — the same number that set the 2026 tier. Same mapping (score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35)) and the same A–F Δ bands as the 2025 grade below. It recomputes each week as SP+ updates; the projection and tier do not. Early in the season, in-season SP+ still leans heavily on its preseason priors, so most live grades start near C and drift as results accumulate.
2026 portal cycle
−0.27z
talent-weighted z-score
applied: −0.05 pts
Top gains
Top losses
Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2026 portal cycle. See the full portal leaderboard →
2025 season · final grade
Projection
66.7
Realized
61.9
Δ
−4.9
Δ grade
C
Floor SECONDARY
C
The yellow tick is TCU's August 13, 2025 preseason SP+ rating (+11.7) — the last preseason release before Week 1, from Bill Connelly / ESPN. The dark bar is the final 2025 SP+ (Connelly, post-championship). Both mapped to the 0–100 scale by score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35), clamped [1, 99]. The gap between them is Δ: −4.9. Δ banded A through F gives the letter grade.
A C means TCU finished within a narrow band of the projection (Δ −4.9, band −6 to +8). The season the projection described.
Floor grade: C · secondary lens · 7% of downside headroom used. Δ divided by the room TCU had to fall from projection 66.7 toward 0. A team at projection 66.7 had 66.7 points of downside room; a proj-90 team would have had 90.
The letter grade always records the same relationship: realized minus projection, banded A through F. A team can sit in the Elite tier and still receive a D. LSU in 2025 is that case.
Read the methodology →Offense (2025)
32.9
SP+ offensive rating
Defense (2025)
23.9
SP+ defensive rating (lower = better)
Nat'l SP+ rank
#37
Final 2025 SP+ ranking
2025 portal cycle (context)
−0.49z
talent-weighted z-score
Top gains
Top losses
Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2025 portal cycle (context).
Returning production (2025): 61% of prior-year PPA back on the field (Bill Connelly's percentPPA metric via CFBD). This is a narrative reference — the 2025 grade itself is Δ vs preseason SP+ only.