Rebuilding #103

Temple

American Athletic · 2026 preseason baseline

Projection

36.1

SP+ preseason

−8.7

Returning prod.

45%

Recruiting

39%

2026 portal cycle

Inside a standard deviation of zero.

+0.93z

talent-weighted z-score

applied: +0.19 pts

Top gains

  • 4★ SJaeden Gould from UCF
  • 3★ QBJaxon Smolik from Penn State
  • 3★ QBAjani Sheppard from Washington State

Top losses

  • 3★ QBTyler Douglas
  • 3★ EDGESultan Badmus to Arkansas State
  • 3★ RBTerrez Worthy to Maryland

Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2026 portal cycle. See the full portal leaderboard →

2025 season · final grade

The 2025 season, graded.

B CeilingB

Ahead of the projection.

Realized SP+ −5.1 · SP+ rank #88

Projection

25.3

Realized

42.7

Δ

+17.4

Δ grade

B

Ceiling SECONDARY

B

Projection vs realized

Realized 42.7 Projection 25.3

The yellow tick is Temple's August 13, 2025 preseason SP+ rating (−17.3) — the last preseason release before Week 1, from Bill Connelly / ESPN. The dark bar is the final 2025 SP+ (Connelly, post-championship). Both mapped to the 0–100 scale by score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35), clamped [1, 99]. The gap between them is Δ: +17.4. Δ banded A through F gives the letter grade.

What the grade means

A B means Temple finished between 8 and 20 points above the projection (Δ +17.4). Ahead of the projection, and on purpose.

Ceiling grade: B · secondary lens · 23% of upside headroom used. Δ divided by the room Temple had to move (upside if Δ is positive, downside if negative). Ceiling normalizes for projection height: a projection-90 team has 10 points of upside room, a projection-50 team has 50.

The letter grade always records the same relationship: realized minus projection, banded A through F. A team can sit in the Elite tier and still receive a D. LSU in 2025 is that case.

Read the methodology →

Offense (2025)

27.1

SP+ offensive rating

Defense (2025)

33.2

SP+ defensive rating (lower = better)

Nat'l SP+ rank

#88

Final 2025 SP+ ranking

2025 portal cycle (context)

Inside a standard deviation of zero.

+0.83z

talent-weighted z-score

Top gains

  • 3★ QBGevani McCoy from Texas State
  • 3★ QBAnthony Chiccitt from Robert Morris
  • 3★ EDGECharles Calhoun III from Gannon

Top losses

  • 3★ QBChris Dietrich to Bucknell
  • 3★ EDGETra Thomas to NC State
  • 3★ RBTyrei Washington to Cal Poly

Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2025 portal cycle (context).

Returning production (2025): 100% of prior-year PPA back on the field (Bill Connelly's percentPPA metric via CFBD). This is a narrative reference — the 2025 grade itself is Δ vs preseason SP+ only.