Contender #18

Ole Miss

SEC · 2026 preseason baseline

Projection

74.2

SP+ preseason

+15.9

Returning prod.

61%

Recruiting

79%

Head coach

★ new HC

2026 portal cycle

Net positive on talent-weighted flow.

+2.16z

talent-weighted z-score

applied: +0.43 pts

Top gains

  • 4★ QBDeuce Knight from Auburn
  • 4★ EDGEBlake Purchase from Oregon
  • 4★ EDGEJordan Renaud from Alabama

Top losses

  • 5★ EDGEPrincewill Umanmielen to LSU
  • 4★ QBAustin Simmons to Missouri
  • 4★ EDGEDa'Shawn Womack to Auburn

Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2026 portal cycle. See the full portal leaderboard →

2025 season · final grade

The 2025 season, graded.

C CeilingB

On the projection.

Realized SP+ +24.0 · SP+ rank #7

Projection

79.6

Realized

84.3

Δ

+4.7

Δ grade

C

Ceiling SECONDARY

B

Projection vs realized

Realized 84.3 Projection 79.6

The yellow tick is Ole Miss's August 13, 2025 preseason SP+ rating (+20.7) — the last preseason release before Week 1, from Bill Connelly / ESPN. The dark bar is the final 2025 SP+ (Connelly, post-championship). Both mapped to the 0–100 scale by score = 50 + SP+ × (50/35), clamped [1, 99]. The gap between them is Δ: +4.7. Δ banded A through F gives the letter grade.

What the grade means

A C means Ole Miss finished within a narrow band of the projection (Δ +4.7, band −6 to +8). The season the projection described.

Ceiling grade: B · secondary lens · 23% of upside headroom used. Δ divided by the room Ole Miss had to move (upside if Δ is positive, downside if negative). Ceiling normalizes for projection height: a projection-90 team has 10 points of upside room, a projection-50 team has 50.

The letter grade always records the same relationship: realized minus projection, banded A through F. A team can sit in the Elite tier and still receive a D. LSU in 2025 is that case.

Read the methodology →

Offense (2025)

40.4

SP+ offensive rating

Defense (2025)

18.3

SP+ defensive rating (lower = better)

Nat'l SP+ rank

#7

Final 2025 SP+ ranking

2025 portal cycle (context)

Net positive on talent-weighted flow.

+2.60z

talent-weighted z-score

Top gains

  • 4★ EDGEDa'Shawn Womack from LSU
  • 4★ EDGEPrincewill Umanmielen from Nebraska
  • 4★ WRDeuce Alexander from Wake Forest

Top losses

  • 4★ DLAkelo Stone to Georgia Tech
  • 4★ OTMicah Pettus to Florida State
  • 3★ QBPierce Clarkson to UCLA

Portal moves are weighted by recruiting stars, position (QB and skill positions weighted higher), and eligibility. Withdrawn entrants are excluded. The z-score is normalized across teams appearing in the 2025 portal cycle (context).

Returning production (2025): 18% of prior-year PPA back on the field (Bill Connelly's percentPPA metric via CFBD). This is a narrative reference — the 2025 grade itself is Δ vs preseason SP+ only.